Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Why it is impossible to find miss perfect ?

Lets define miss perfect to be X

Number of people in World = 6,602,236,753

Number of females in World = 3,278,621,042 (I am straight)

Lets say we would expect X to be between 20-24 age
Number of females in World between 20-24 = 2,79,407,178

Demographic probability (This is my personal view - I am an Indian)
X from Indian = 0.6
X from US = 0.3
X from other places = 0.1 (since US and India are only places I have been, hence this is low probability)

Population of females between 20-24 age:
India = 48,812,664
US = 10,240,823
Other = 220,353,691

Therefore, eligible females = 0.6 * 48,812,664 + 0.3 * 10,240,823 + 0.1 * 2,20,353,691 = 54,395,214

I also want X to be beautiful (physical characteristics - I wont go into details) and intelligent.

Lets consider normal distribution with variance = 1 and mean = 0.

Females having "really" perfect physical attributes can be estimated to be 2 deviations above norm. Hence 2.275%
But lets say, this is not a stringent factor and increase this to 20%

Intelligence - I dont expect X to be very very intelligent, lets say 1 deviation above norm. Hence, 84,135%

Also, X should not be already committed and also must like me.

X not already committed = 50% (Since we are considering females in age 20-24)
X who also likes me = 15.86% (Since she is beautiful, and I am not very fun kind of guy - why do u think I am still writing this post ?? :))

Therefore, eligible females = 54,395,214 * 0.2 * 0.84135 * 0.5 * 0.1586 = 7,25,840

Assuming if I go to blind date with new girl every week (I am quite conservative and shy - So probabilty of this happening is 0.1. But for sake of argument, lets assign it probability 1), it would take me 7,25,840 weeks

1 year = 52.177 weeks

Therefore, number of years to find X is 7,25,840 / 52.177 = 13,911 years

Life expectancy in US is 77.8 years (I highly doubt that ;-) )

Therefore, either I or her will be dead before we fall in love. Hence, it is impossible to find "Miss Perfect".

(Please note: I have considered females with age 20-24, but as I grow older, i might want to go with females of similar age. However, this makes problem more difficult. Hence, I assumed age bracket 20-24)

(All above data is as per 20th November. Almost all data is collected from http://www.census.gov/

This post is based on paper by Tristan Miller, German Center of AI)