Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Why it is impossible to find miss perfect ?

Lets define miss perfect to be X

Number of people in World = 6,602,236,753

Number of females in World = 3,278,621,042 (I am straight)

Lets say we would expect X to be between 20-24 age
Number of females in World between 20-24 = 2,79,407,178

Demographic probability (This is my personal view - I am an Indian)
X from Indian = 0.6
X from US = 0.3
X from other places = 0.1 (since US and India are only places I have been, hence this is low probability)

Population of females between 20-24 age:
India = 48,812,664
US = 10,240,823
Other = 220,353,691

Therefore, eligible females = 0.6 * 48,812,664 + 0.3 * 10,240,823 + 0.1 * 2,20,353,691 = 54,395,214

I also want X to be beautiful (physical characteristics - I wont go into details) and intelligent.

Lets consider normal distribution with variance = 1 and mean = 0.

Females having "really" perfect physical attributes can be estimated to be 2 deviations above norm. Hence 2.275%
But lets say, this is not a stringent factor and increase this to 20%

Intelligence - I dont expect X to be very very intelligent, lets say 1 deviation above norm. Hence, 84,135%

Also, X should not be already committed and also must like me.

X not already committed = 50% (Since we are considering females in age 20-24)
X who also likes me = 15.86% (Since she is beautiful, and I am not very fun kind of guy - why do u think I am still writing this post ?? :))

Therefore, eligible females = 54,395,214 * 0.2 * 0.84135 * 0.5 * 0.1586 = 7,25,840

Assuming if I go to blind date with new girl every week (I am quite conservative and shy - So probabilty of this happening is 0.1. But for sake of argument, lets assign it probability 1), it would take me 7,25,840 weeks

1 year = 52.177 weeks

Therefore, number of years to find X is 7,25,840 / 52.177 = 13,911 years

Life expectancy in US is 77.8 years (I highly doubt that ;-) )

Therefore, either I or her will be dead before we fall in love. Hence, it is impossible to find "Miss Perfect".

(Please note: I have considered females with age 20-24, but as I grow older, i might want to go with females of similar age. However, this makes problem more difficult. Hence, I assumed age bracket 20-24)

(All above data is as per 20th November. Almost all data is collected from http://www.census.gov/

This post is based on paper by Tristan Miller, German Center of AI)

9 comments:

Nikhil said...

Considering your motto "Knowledge is the ultimate objective" this blog is kind of out of place. :P but nevertheless good data collection.... :D..

Kishore said...

so what's your own way of finding the most suitable one for you??

Niketan R. Pansare said...

Nikhil: I never said that knowledge is restricted to only books.

Kishore: I am not sure :( .... I guess I will settle for an imperfect one who loves me (& my family) rather than trying to find the most suitable one.
(FIFO rather than Optimal solution .... hehehe)

Anonymous said...

Even if your calculations were wrong and it WAS possible to find miss perfect within a lifespan,

you will DEFINITELY not find her because the probability of her finding this blog is over 100%.

Get a life dude. Get a girl and go out with her. And don't forget to keep your intellectual mind at home when you go.

Anonymous said...

And yes, miss perfect doesn't look at morons!!!

Niketan R. Pansare said...

Hey Anonymous aka Rohan : This post was just for fun ...

As u already kno ... science n math (ie deductive logic) cannot explain everything ... eg Bees cannot fly !!!

Anonymous said...

Hey how did you recognise it was me. You are not as big a moron as I used to think!!!

Anonymous said...

if life were to be based strictly on maths and stats, this would be a nightmare come true :)

-Blue Bike

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